BMI Students

Sunday, December 11, 2005

Forecasting

An interesting New Yorker article on forecasting and ostensible expertise.


There are also many studies showing that expertise and experience do not make someone a better reader of the evidence. In one, data from a test used to diagnose brain damage were given to a group of clinical psychologists and their secretaries. The psychologists’ diagnoses were no better than the secretaries’.


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